The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Past Event
2023-12-08
Assessing the Midpoint of COP28: The Climate Negotiations Teeter On The Brink
The first day of COP28, held in Dubai, made history by successfully launching the "Loss and Damage" fund, bringing justice after decades of effort by developing countries. However, a week after this climate conference with record participation, what progress has actually been made?
The "Loss and Damage" Fund - All Thunder, Little Rain
The "Loss and Damage" fund raised approximately US$430 million on the first day, earning rapturous applause. To date, total commitments to the fund stand at only around US$700 million. The current pledged amount falls far short of developing countries' actual needs. NGOs focused on "Loss and Damage" point out that developing countries face over US$400 billion in losses each year due to the climate crisis, meaning the US$700 million pledged amounts to a mere 0.2% of their requirements. Notably, wealthy nations bearing the greatest responsibility for climate change, including the US, Germany, Japan, the UK, Canada, and the EU, have already made commitments. It is foreseeable that by the end of COP28, the scale of the "Loss and Damage" fund will still be far from sufficient to address estimated costs. Also still "overdue" is developed nations' 2009 pledge to provide US$100 billion annually to developing countries by 2020. Developing countries continue to criticize developed nations for failing to meet the US$100 billion target. Meanwhile, they worry that much climate financing takes the form of loans, leading many developing countries into a debt abyss due to excessive interest rates.
Climate financing has always been a focal point in negotiations, with the climate financing talks marked by the most tension. How to balance financing for adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage is also a key issue in Global Stocktake (GST) discussions.
Global Stocktake - Is The 1.5°C Target Still Possible?
Whether this COP will be a COP2.8°C or can still keep 1.5°C alive hinges on the GST. The GST is a core element of the Paris Agreement, taking stock of countries' actual progress on climate action based on their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to identify the gap to the 1.5°C target. This enables ratcheting up of climate action ambitions.
As the first GST since the Paris Agreement, negotiations still face barriers due to the fundamental divide between developed and developing countries on principles of fairness, justice and climate justice. Developing countries stress focusing on support for economies, including adaptation and loss and damage, and providing financing and agricultural aid. Developed countries emphasize energy transition.
Can "Phase Out Fossil Fuels" Enter The COP28 Final Agreement?
Despite seeming positive news in week one, like over 100 countries pledging to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency, the US joining the "Powering Past Coal Alliance," the COP28 chairs proposing an "Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter," and the Arab Coordination Group committing US$100 billion towards energy transition, the climate talks outlook remains concerning. Crucially, we still lack commitments to "phase out fossil fuels" and a clear roadmap to net zero emissions by 2050.
The COP28 draft final agreement puts forward three options: 1) an orderly, just phase-out of fossil fuels; 2) accelerated efforts to phase down "unabated" fossil fuels; 3) no mention of phasing out or reducing fossil fuels. The third option is unacceptable, but exclusion remains uncertain. The second option has the greatest chance as "unabated" lacks a clear definition, easily allowing misinterpretation. Even the first option requires carefully defining each word.
The outlook is unclear, but science is unequivocal: phasing out fossil fuels is essential to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target. Not reducing, not mitigating - eliminating. Claims by the COP28 chair that phasing out fossil fuels "lacks scientific basis" are shocking. Protests have already erupted over this stance. Civil society's position on eliminating fossil fuels is steadfast, but this will be a pitched battle! This year, over 2,456 oil industry lobbyists have infiltrated the conference. Were oil and gas a country, it would have the second largest delegation after the UAE then Brazil. The UN Secretary General branded oil and gas companies "climate crisis giants." Ironically, one chairs COP28.
With the climate crisis dire, the COP28 climate talks are in jeopardy, requiring global mobilization. As a developed city, Hong Kong should make more ambitious commitments like phasing out all fossil fuels, not just coal, conducting five-yearly stocktakes of local climate action per the Climate Action Plan 2050, and establishing funds to address local loss and damage needs - setting an example of decarbonization for the world.