The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Past Event
2024-11-11
Uncertain Prospects for COP29: Challenging Road Ahead for Climate Negotiations (Part 2)
Before continuing our COP29 discussion from the first article, reviewing last year's COP28 will provide context for this year's negotiations. Last year marked the midpoint of the Paris Agreement's 2015-2030 commitment period and included the first Global Stocktake (GST), which assessed global progress in implementing the Paris Agreement. The new targets established included tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and transitioning away from fossil fuels. These marked significant milestones in climate negotiations and helped enhance countries' emission reduction and climate adaptation targets and plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This year's COP29 will continue focusing on strengthening national climate mitigation targets to achieve 2030 carbon reduction goals.
However, the UNFCCC's latest report indicates that under current NDC submissions, global temperatures are projected to rise by approximately 2.8°C by the end of the century, significantly exceeding the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target. Consequently, there are widespread expectations for countries to enhance their NDC climate action commitments and specific targets. Yet, severe divisions persist between developed and developing countries, hindering substantial target improvements. Developed countries hope to apply the Global Stocktake results to all nations, including developing countries' NDCs. However, developing countries insist on discussing climate finance, maintaining that without adequate financial support from developed nations, they cannot achieve their mitigation targets.
Climate Mitigation and Global Stocktake's Mutual Influence
Meanwhile, negotiations on the Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) face similar controversies. Established at COP26, the MWP aims to discuss ways to support countries in strengthening climate mitigation measures, such as renewable energy deployment, and enhancing national mitigation targets. However, these negotiations have recently become another arena for debate between developing and developed countries over climate targets and finance. Developing country representatives maintain that the MWP's focus should be on promoting climate mitigation technologies and strategies, excluding the Global Stocktake, arguing against putting pressure on developing countries regarding mitigation targets.
COP29 in 2024 comes at a crucial time, occurring both one year after the completion of the first Global Stocktake and on the eve of countries submitting their third NDCs (2025-2035). When evaluating NDC progress, countries will follow the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) operational guidelines to calculate and disclose carbon emission data and climate policy effectiveness, submitting Biennial Transparency Reports (BTR) every two years to assess progress. If countries can submit both their NDCs and BTRs at COP29, it would help foster mutual trust and raise climate targets.
Just Transition Scope Expands to Entire Society
Beyond climate mitigation, the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP), established at COP27, responds to the Paris Agreement's requirements for just transition. This means protecting workers' rights when transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy. However, for developing countries, achieving a just transition also requires changing the economic model of endless growth and high consumption to create sustainable lifestyles.
The JTWP negotiations remain contentious, with disputes not only over the theoretical definition of just transition but also concerning practical implementation scope and funding requirements. Developed countries prefer to maintain the negotiations as a dialogue platform, while developing countries insist on establishing a comprehensive, operational concrete plan. However, breakthrough prospects in specific negotiations depend on progress in climate action targets and finance negotiations.
Hong Kong's Role
As an Asian metropolis, Hong Kong should actively participate in inter-city climate action alliance activities at COP29, demonstrating innovative solutions to global cities in policy, finance, and technology to implement the Paris Agreement. Viable directions include:
- Significantly increasing renewable energy capacity and energy efficiency targets
- Collaborating with neighboring cities to promote energy technology innovation and application for energy transition
- Promoting carbon market trading that meets human rights standards and integrity requirements
- Accelerating local actions to implement and enhance national carbon reduction targets
- Developing local targets with reference to global adaptation goals
- Exploring societal-wide just transition pathways
With Secretary for Environment and Ecology Mr. Tse Chin-wan heading to COP29 today, CarbonCare InnoLab earnestly hopes the delegation will return with concrete commitments and definitive actions regarding climate justice transition and the above initiatives.
The Rocky Road to COP29
Azerbaijan, as COP29's host country, is a fossil fuel producer. Combined with tense geopolitics, restrictions on civil society, and the looming possibility of another U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, the atmosphere of scepticism surrounding COP29 negotiations grows increasingly severe. The greatest challenge is avoiding the pursuit of merely minimum common ground in climate agreements, which would weaken the effectiveness of climate negotiations.
All eyes are therefore on the "Road to 1.5°C Mission" initiative, launched jointly by the "Troika" of COP28, COP29, and COP30 presidencies (UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil). This initiative advocates for enhanced climate action targets in the next round of NDCs, aiming to create a favorable diplomatic negotiation environment. Completing these agreement milestones could establish a fully functional and operational framework for next year's COP30 in Belém, Brazil.
In conclusion, COP29's success depends on negotiators maintaining positive attitudes, narrowing differences, securing necessary funding, demonstrating negotiation flexibility and cooperation spirit, strengthening mutual trust and collaboration, and striking a balance between raising targets and procedural justice - all while keeping hope alive for the 1.5°C target. (End)