The Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Past Event
2024-11-18
COP29 Climate Negotiations Lag as Financial Targets Disappoint
The COP29 climate negotiations in Azerbaijan this year saw an impressive attendance of over 65,000 participants, second only to last year’s COP28. The intensity of the discussions during the first week was notably high, rarely seen in recent years. Following an inspiring video at the opening ceremony, the day's proceedings were significantly delayed due to disagreements over the agenda. A central point of contention was how to follow up on the first-ever Global Stocktake (GST) conducted at COP28, whether to focus solely on financial aspects or track progress in all areas. This debate was only resolved late into the night, ultimately deciding to focus on financial linkage.
Moreover, a report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) during COP29 predicted that this year's temperature increase had already exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius, signaling an urgent need for action. However, negotiators spent much time arguing over procedural issues, which not only delayed solutions but also hampered the overall effectiveness of the negotiations. The first week of COP29 was marred by disputes over various key issues such as financing, carbon markets, the GST, mitigation and adaptation efforts, and gender-related issues.
Significant Gaps in Climate Finance Remain Unresolved with Targets Falling Short
The climate finance negotiations at COP29 faced significant challenges from the outset. The G-77 and China group outright rejected the draft prepared by the Ad hoc Work Programme on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) in early October, proposing a new text instead. This move prompted other negotiating groups to follow suit, each aiming to dominate the discussions and secure the most favourable outcomes for themselves. This resulted in the original 9-page document ballooning to an unwieldy 34 pages, making it difficult to manage discussions.
After a week of negotiations, the main sticking points remain the quantum of the financing targets, the distribution ratios for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage, and the eligibility criteria for accessing these funds. The G-77 and China group have proposed increasing the financial commitment from the initial US$100 billion annually to US$1.3 trillion per year. However, this figure still falls short of the US$4-6 trillion per year suggested by various research institutions. Developed countries remain cautious about such a significant increase without a clear framework and defined responsibilities.
The negotiations also cover the sources of finance and transparency, such as leveraging public finances to attract private investments in climate projects and reducing investment risks. However, some developing countries express concerns that increasing private investment could exacerbate inequalities among nations, as investors tend to favour countries with lower risks. The African Group has argued that true climate finance should be in the form of grants rather than loans or investments, without adding to the debt burden of the recipient countries. The G-77 and China group have suggested distinguishing climate finance to ensure that these funds are additional and not merely repackaged existing foreign aid projects.
In the last two days, representatives have been working to consolidate the text on less contentious issues like transparency, creating a more positive atmosphere. However, progress on other significant disagreements remains stalled. As of now, the document still contains over 400 points of contention across 25 pages. Parties hope to finalize the text early this week for submission to the plenary for discussion.
Procedural Justice Violated in the Approval of Carbon Market Operation Standards
In another controversial decision at the COP29 meeting, the chair announced the approval of the draft resolution for the Paris Carbon Crediting Mechanism without any formal negotiations. Even though the related operation mechanisms and tools, including methodologies, carbon removal standards, and human rights safeguard standards, were established in October, representatives from various countries expected that these standards would still need to be deliberated and approved at the meeting. Concerns were raised about potential loopholes, fraud, exaggeration, double counting in carbon removal methods, and the insufficiency of human rights safeguards. This announcement was a clear violation of the United Nations' routine procedures for deliberating drafts, immediately sparking opposition from many countries and observer organisations.
Furthermore, during the negotiations on the international carbon market operation mechanism, representatives also raised questions, particularly regarding the scope of authority of the UNFCCC supervisory bodies and the carbon trading registry, the integrity, credibility and transparency of carbon trading, and the procedures and timing for authorisation of carbon credits. The effective implementation of human rights safeguard principles was also a concern raised by various parties and observer organisations. Although the draft has been completed by experts from various countries, it still requires deliberation by the plenary.
Delays in Global Stocktake Negotiations Impact Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Efforts
Additionally, unresolved controversies include how the results of the Global Stocktake (GST) are implemented. The GST aims to assess the progress and gaps of countries in advancing climate action since the Paris Agreement. Current negotiations between developing and developed country representatives primarily focus on the scope and manner of the GST—whether it should be limited to the procedures of the GST itself or include discussions on other issues such as transitioning away from fossil fuels, financing for implementing national climate commitments (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDC) and adaptation plans (National Adaptation Plans, NAP), trade measures, and technology transfer. Despite the differences, announcements from the UK and Brazil during the first week of the conference about their third NDCs and 2035 carbon reduction targets (cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 levels and 59-67% from 2005 levels, respectively) could positively influence the negotiations.
Negotiations on the climate mitigation work plan and the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) are inevitably affected by the NCQG and GST discussions. Related drafts will need to be submitted for plenary deliberation, but negotiators have stated that no agreement has been reached yet, and there is ongoing concern about their connection to the GST, even depending on the outcomes of the NCQG negotiations. They also worry that the sovereignty in formulating NDCs and NAPs may be compromised. Observer non-governmental organisations emphasise the need to ensure principles such as gender equality, children's rights, and indigenous rights.
The Neglected Issue of Gender Equality in Climate Negotiations
Gender equality is a significantly overlooked issue in climate negotiations. Globally, many women are engaged in work that is highly susceptible to climate impacts, often suffering disproportionate effects, which urgently necessitates policy intervention. Despite the Lima Work Programme adopted at COP20 in Peru ten years ago, which called for the integration of gender equality and human rights principles and provided funding to eliminate gender disparities in climate action, the current COP29 proposes to extend this plan for another five years. However, consensus has not been reached due to opposition from several conservative countries. So far, the text still requires negotiation at 118 points. Failure to pass the related draft at this time would significantly affect the efficacy of climate actions.
With the first week of negotiations completed, the NCQG and GST remain deadlocked and must continue early this week. Although drafts on other topics have been completed and need to be submitted for conference discussion, the critical nature of the aforementioned issues will influence the negotiations on other topics. The presidency has assigned ministers from some countries to lead the negotiations on NCQG, GST, mitigation, and adaptation, hoping to resolve differences as soon as possible. It is expected that negotiators from various countries will prepare multiple scenarios and engage in extensive diplomatic mediation. Youth representatives from CarbonCare InnoLab (CCIL) are currently in Azerbaijan, participating in the final week of climate negotiations. They will make every effort to express their demands on climate issues and hope to reach an agreement on key issues such as climate financing and global stocktake before the scheduled conclusion this Friday, to avoid ending the meeting without agreements, which would further delay global climate action.
COP29 Article Series:
Uncertain Prospects for COP29: Challenging Road Ahead for Climate Negotiations (Part 1)
Uncertain Prospects for COP29: Challenging Road Ahead for Climate Negotiations (Part 2)