Climate Blog
2024-05-31
The Significance of the 2024 Bonn Climate Change Conference for International Climate Negotiations
Every June, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) convenes the Bonn Climate Change Conference in Germany. This year's conference will be held from June 3 to 13, 2024. The timing of the conference is midway between last year's and this year's UN climate change meetings, making it an opportune moment to follow up on the outcomes of last year's COP28 negotiations in Dubai and prepare for the upcoming COP29 negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November. Last year's COP28 conducted a Global Stocktake (GST) of the actions taken by countries since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, agreeing on a "transition away from fossil fuels," tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency, and phasing out government subsidies for fossil fuels to align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree target. Implementing these post-stocktake commitments has become the focus of future international climate negotiations. Therefore, the first dialogue following the Global Stocktake naturally becomes the focal point of the Bonn Conference. Civil society is particularly interested in the outcomes of the Global Stocktake and its long-term impact on setting the global climate finance goal for COP29 this year, as well as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) that countries will submit for the post-2025 period, which outline their climate mitigation and adaptation policy targets for the next five years.
Global Stocktake (GST) and Mitigation Work Programme (MWP)
The Global Stocktake (GST) is an essential mechanism under the Paris Agreement to assess the progress made by countries in implementing the agreement since its adoption in 2015. Last year's COP28 conducted the first Global Stocktake, and although countries agreed on language such as "transition away from fossil fuels," the GST decision text still lacked strong support on critical issues like climate finance, adaptation, and loss and damage. The future GST process will continue to follow up on how to enhance countries' roadmaps for implementing the 1.5-degree target, establish dialogues for knowledge sharing and best practices, and plan for the UAE Dialogue in 2028 to review the implementation results of the GST.
As for the first annual GST dialogue to be held in Bonn, it provides a platform for sharing experiences and building capacity, which is a crucial opportunity to influence countries' next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including policies and practices for transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy and improving energy efficiency. We expect the GST to inevitably address the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities" (CBDR-RC), touching upon the long-standing contradictions between developed, emerging, and developing countries regarding how to allocate their respective responsibilities. This will impact how countries update their NDC targets, what methods are used to allocate responsibilities, and more importantly, the fair share of contributions to the "New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance" (NCQG) and which countries can be allocated relevant funds, becoming the main content of the dialogue.
We hope that this year's GST annual dialogue will fully discuss how NDCs should respond to the outcomes of the GST, especially the "transition away from fossil fuels," and make full use of the concurrent workshop on "Enhancing NDC Preparation and Implementation Capacity Knowledge Sharing" to exchange experiences, lessons learned, and overcome challenges. At the same time, we should not forget that in the process of "transitioning away from fossil fuels," it is essential to adhere to a just transition and not overlook the interests of workers, indigenous peoples, and economically vulnerable groups during the transition period. We need to protect the basic rights of vulnerable groups, adhere to climate justice principles, and ensure that no one is left behind, placing these groups at the core of the transition process. In the transition to renewable energy and a low-carbon economy, we must consider not only technological and economic factors but also social and environmental impacts, ensuring that all affected groups can participate in decision-making and benefit from the transition.
In addition to the GST, discussions on the Sharm el-Sheikh Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) will also influence the formulation of NDCs and have many complementary aspects with the GST. The MWP serves as a platform to guide technical discussions and bring out discussions on specific climate actions and decision-making. Since the launch of the MWP at COP27 in 2022, it is time to start evaluating the progress and outcomes of the MWP, as well as the opportunities and challenges it faces, and assess how the MWP fulfills its mission of "urgently enhancing mitigation ambition and implementation in this critical decade and complementing the global stocktake."
The role of local and municipal governments, which has long been overlooked in international climate negotiations, has gradually emerged in recent years and is one of the themes of this year's international climate negotiations. The theme of this year's Bonn MWP dialogue also happens to fall on urban systems, building emissions reductions, and the role of emissions reduction-related investments. Although cities occupy only 3% of the global land area, they account for 70% of total global carbon emissions, highlighting that urban emissions reduction is at the core of countries' implementation of their NDCs. We hope that this dialogue can cover solutions and reach a consensus on key emissions reduction actions, build resilient cities that align with the 1.5°C target, and focus the relevant technical discussions on how to enhance the operability of the emissions reduction strategies proposed by the GST. To the best of my knowledge, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) constituency will also actively participate in the GST and MWP negotiations. As the primary implementers of national climate policies, local and municipal governments hope to highlight their unique position in the nation-driven international climate negotiations, how to support countries in conducting GST at the local level, effectively achieving the specific policy goals of NDCs and NAPs, and coordinating countries to enhance their climate policy targets.
CarbonCare InnoLab (CCIL) has been echoing the spirit of the GST by reviewing our city's efforts to enhance climate mitigation and adaptation. Since 2018, CCIL has been publishing the "Paris Watch – Hong Kong Climate Action" report every year, tracking the performance of Hong Kong and other neighboring Asian cities in climate mitigation and adaptation, and whether they are in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, in 2022, CCIL published the "Hong Kong Just Transition" report, promoting conversations on just transition among various sectors through climate community dialogues, with a particular focus on the impact of climate change on vulnerable communities, advocating for climate actions that adhere to the principles of justice and inclusiveness, and promoting the participation of vulnerable communities in climate actions.
New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG)
On the one hand, various parties are concerned about the political wrestling between countries, especially between developed, emerging, and developing countries, regarding their commitments to a fair share of the carbon budget before submitting their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The formulation of climate finance goals, future climate finance targets, and who will share the financing will certainly be the focus of negotiations at this year's Bonn Conference and COP29. As the previous round of the $100 billion annual climate finance goal set at COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009 has been extended without an increase, developing countries have been calling on developed countries to meet the original goal as soon as possible and raise the finance target.
The formulation of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) is a process that was initiated at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 under Article 9.3 of the Paris Agreement. It will become the top priority at COP29 this year, with the goal of deciding on it at COP29 to meet the needs of developing countries for climate action. This year's Bonn Conference will be the second-to-last formal meeting to prepare the negotiating text, making it a crucial meeting that must achieve significant progress. Moreover, the NCQG negotiations not only affect the financing of climate mitigation efforts but also have a significant impact on the negotiation processes of climate adaptation and loss and damage.
Currently, the technical dialogues on NCQG have been ongoing for over two years, but no substantial progress has been made so far, which is unacceptable. As the negotiations enter the final stage, countries should at least establish some basic parameters before the Bonn Conference. The NCQG must clearly define the main financing goals and set sub-goals for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. The sources of funds should be collected through multiple channels, taking into account the structural inequalities of continuous debt in developing countries and the internal inequalities within developed countries, and should not be limited to Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects from developed countries. Countries should focus on raising funds from those countries that have profited the most from emissions to date, considering gradually phasing out and redirecting fossil fuel subsidies, and levying taxes on high-emitting sectors in a fair and equitable manner, in order to make up for the trust deficit caused by developed countries' failure to achieve their climate finance targets over the years and accelerate the negotiation process.
For environmental organizations, the formulation of the NCQG should not only address the needs of mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage but also take into account biodiversity and ecosystems, adhere to the principles of human rights and indigenous peoples' rights, especially safeguarding access to funds for gender and vulnerable communities, and be based on a robust transparency and accountability framework. The negotiating text should also stipulate that developed countries have an obligation to take the lead in providing finance to developing countries, in accordance with Articles 9, 2.2, and 4.5 of the Paris Agreement. As for emerging economies, which have gradually replaced developed countries as major carbon emitters in recent years and have rapidly growing economic scales, there are opinions that the existing agreements should not limit the sources of funds to developed countries and that emerging economies should also start to take on responsibilities. We believe that developed, emerging, and developing countries should reach a consensus on financing negotiations, ensuring that the financing process does not add to the debt burden of developing countries and does not impose unjust burdens on individuals and communities with lower historical contributions. In addition to the overall goal and sub-goals of the NCQG, the UNFCCC has also held dedicated discussions on climate adaptation finance under Article 2.1c of the Paris Agreement. However, we expect that these discussions will only be able to set clear targets once there is substantial progress in the NCQG discussions.
Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)
In the past, climate adaptation has not been a standing agenda item at COPs. It was not until last year's COP28 that the new UAE Global Climate Resilience Framework was adopted, confirming the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and integrating the Adaptation Committee, the Adaptation Fund, and the Nairobi Work Programme. Moving forward, based on the UAE Framework, the Bonn Conference must begin to follow up on the two-year UAE-Belen Work Programme, develop a roadmap for the next two years of work, and specify the criteria for indicator development to ensure progress in the adaptation work programme. In addition to NDCs, the GST also requires countries to submit National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) by 2025 and implement them by 2030. However, as mentioned above, climate finance negotiations, including those on climate adaptation, have yet to make any progress. Therefore, the Bonn Conference also needs to re-examine the relevant agenda, assess the latest progress, identify gaps, and seek to accelerate the formulation of relevant implementation plans by countries.
As for specific adaptation goals, civil society will continue to advocate for locally-led climate adaptation to be at the core of achieving the global adaptation goal and promote community participation in developing indicators to measure the effectiveness of relevant strategies and activities, especially including women and indigenous peoples and other vulnerable groups in the relevant governance structures and the implementation process of climate adaptation.
In summary, the two main focuses of this year's Bonn Conference, the Global Stocktake (GST) and the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG), are important mechanisms for addressing climate change, but the decision text of the previous COP28 still lacked the impetus to drive policies on key issues. In future dialogues and implementation processes, more attention must be paid to the challenges faced by countries, cities and regions in implementation, while ensuring that the transition process adheres to the principles of justice and inclusiveness. The year 2024 will be a crucial year for setting a new round of climate finance goals (NCQG) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Dialogue and cooperation are both important ways to ensure that the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C can be achieved by countries worldwide.